The Value (or lackthereof) of Drafting M13

Today was the first day I drafted M13, and it may in fact be the last. This is in no way a statement on the quality of the format. After one draft, there is certainly no way I can say how enjoyable the environment is. My comment, instead, is a reflection on the value of the set.

Flipping through the TCGPlayer values for every card, I find that there are currently six cards worth more than $10, and five of them are mythic. The one rare is Thragtusk, at $12. The five mythics vary between $10 (Nocturnus) and $30 (Ajani). Every other rare in the set is below $10, and only a few approach $5 or more. Keep in mind as well that the set isn't even officially out yet, and sets almost as a rule drop in overall value from now until they rotate. Additionally, with a little light speculating, things seem even worse. There are four real big mythics - Ajani, Sublime Archangel, Liliana, and Thundermaw. It's reasonable to assume all four of those will drop, and in the case of Ajani and Liliana, I can see them both under $10 in one to two months.

This isn't about speculating on prices, however. It's more about both the retail and 'perceived' value of the set (I'll get to perceived in a minute). After the draft, I tweeted my observations:

I triggered a bit of discussion, and one @nex3 came forward to discuss some data he had. Given the data he compiled (which is very rough at the moment), here is the value of M13 relative to the last two years or so:

SOM - No Data
MBS - Less Value
NPH - More Value
M12 - Less Value
ISD - More Value
DKA - No value
AVR - No Value

So MBS and M12 were worth less at their prerelease than M13, while NPH and ISD were worth more. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that DKA was worth less than M13 as well, but I'm willing to venture that AVR was worth more overall at it's prerelease, and will show to have held it's value better than M13 will in the coming weeks. I would also consider AVR to be the most relevant set to compare to, as it's the format  we've been drafting for the last two months or so.

The comparison of all of this data is mostly to set a backdrop for what our draft group encountered today. The overall mood of the eight of us was resoundingly 'Ugh, this is it?' When we laid out all of the rares and foils to pick from after the draft, we found that beyond first place, there was basically nothing. First got a Thundermaw, but second place got a Master of the Pearl Trident. Second place got a $4.50 card. After forking over $10 for a draft set, that's pretty brutal. The last AVR draft we did, our ten man group ended up with 8th place taking a $7 card. That was undoubtedly the best payout we saw from all our AVR drafts. However, frequent sentiment at AVR drafts was how deep the value ran, not how shallow it was.

Perhaps we ran poorly today, and as a group pulled below the average value of the set. Perhaps our lifetime average on AVR was high, and we ran better than most did. I absolutely recognize the possibility of anecdotal evidence here. Working on the assumption that our experiences have not been too many deviations from standard, however, leads to a possible issue: There is little to no financial incentive to draft M13.

I would love to to be at a place in my life where I can draft solely for the sake of drafting, with no considerations for the value of the cards that I end up with when I finish. Unfortunately I, along with the rest of my draft group, don't quite have that luxury. We're a group in the age range of 18-30, and of the 15 or so regulars, I don't think a single person makes more than $45,000/year. More than half have no real source of income (student/unemployed). If the value of the set is low, it gets difficult to justify the $10 for packs needed. Sure, you're probably ahead if you win, but if it feels like even second place won't get you your $10 back, then it gets real tough to justify that expense every time. There's already a bias against lower-income areas on flat-rate goods (The cost of a pack is about $3, whether you're in the poorest city in Tennessee or any other more affluent city. Being in Buffalo NY, I'm on the lower end of that scale). When a set has a poor retail value, it is felt more by the poorer Magic players.

Something else that crossed my mind when considering all of this is perceived value in comparison to retail value. Right now, Ajani is $30 from several vendors. However, what is he really worth? He may cost $30 to buy, but what if you don't know anyone that wants to trade for the card? He quickly starts to look less attractive when you consider that the general consensus is that his price is going to drop pretty hard. We encounter the same concerns for the new Liliana. Sure, her price sticker may be $20, but if there isn't a market for trading the card locally, and you think that she is only going to become less valuable in time, then the card quickly appears less valuable than what she's 'worth.' Perhaps what we are seeing is a delay between the retail value of the cards and their actual value. It was easy to see how Bonfire of the Damned and Entreat the Angels could demand $15-$25 price tags. It's a lot tougher to imagine Ajani maintaining that figure in a month.

I want to make it clear that I'm not blaming Wizards for this. They claim they pay no attention to the secondary market when developing cards and sets. I don't know that I completely believe that, but I think that for the most part, that is correct. Even if they wanted to, I don't know how feasible that would be. Wizards just ships the packs; we all decide how much the cardboard is really worth.

At the end of the day, this all boils down to one question: Is it worth it for me to put my $10 towards an M13 draft set, when I feel like there's very little likelihood of me profiting, much less breaking even? I understand that a question like this is going to vary for every person, as nobody's finances are the same. Those of us that are forced to consider the set in that light, however, may find that we are better off waiting for the greener pastures of shocklands in Return to Ravnica.