First, a quick side note: The best way to understand the financials of any given Magic card (or most anything) is to compare it to other similar things that have come before it. Instead of trying to reinvent the wheel when making these educated guesses, let the market tell you what it thinks of something that has already happened. Figure out the similarities between the new object and the old, and then identify the differences and how they may affect the market's reception. Assuming a market of rational actors, the behavior of a new card very similar to an old one should be fairly predictable.
Lucky for us, we happen to have an exceptional benchmark to compare the Shocklands to: Zendikar Fetchlands. In what way are they similar? Both are:
- Rare cycles of lands
- In a large set (shocks will be across two sets, but both sets are large)
- Hugely playable in non-standard formats
- At the top of their respective power curves
- Printed in very popular sets
- Often run as 4 and 8ofs.
At a basic level, both sets of lands are very comparable. Where do they differ, though?
- Number of Printings
- Which non-standard formats they're playable in
- Mechanical function (lands ETB vs land type matters)
- Number of different lands - 5 Fetches, 10 Shocks
How do these differences matter?
Number of printings: This is the most obvious difference, and will absolutely be the biggest factor in any price movements of the Shocks. While Zendikar was the first printing of the Fetches, this is the second go-around for the Shocks. Not only is this the second run of Shocks, but the first run was one of the most popular sets in Magic's history. Having a considerable amount of copies already in circulation will most definitely help suppress the longer-term value of the Shocks. It doesn't matter what the card is; if you start putting Moxes in every box of Wheaties, the price is going to tank. Quantity available matters.
Which formats they're playable in: Fetches were a major part of the standard landscape when they were legal, as Shocks were in their time, and as we expect them to be this time around. However, outside of standard, where are they played? Other relevant formats for lands are Modern, Legacy, and Commander. Both the Fetches and Shocks play a big part in Modern, and are typically used in tandem. Modern will not drive a difference in value, since they see roughly the same amount of usage. Both are also 1-ofs in most every Commander deck, in exactly the same quantity as each other. Commander will also not cause a price divergence either. Legacy, however, is the outstanding factor here. The Zendikar Fetches are, for all intents and purposes, indistinguishable from the Onslaught fetches in Legacy. Most legacy decks will want any Fetches that are on all their colors, but beyond that, they just want "5 additional blue Fetches" or such. This means that the $15 Misty Rainforest is basically the same as the $40 Flooded Strand in many situations. Shocks in Legacy, however, are just the poor man's dual lands. There is a very major play difference between a Hallowed Fountain and a Tundra. Shocks show up on occasion in Legacy, but nowhere near the volume that Zendikar Fetches do. This means that while Standard, Modern and Commander demand basically holds steady between the two groups of lands, Legacy has a much greater demand for the Fetches than the Shocks.
Mechanical function: This is a pretty minor factor, but it has some level of playability influence. We are comparing the deck-thinning, shuffling, and landfall triggers of Fetches to the land type matters of the Shocks. Both will matter in their own block - landfall triggers during Zendikar's time were big (still love me some Lotus Cobra), and land types are already showing up in M13 cards like Liliana of the Dark Realms. However, long-term, I would say that the Fetch mechanics are slightly more valuable than the land type mechanic of the Shocks. At the end of the day though, none of this should matter that much for value considerations.
Number of each type: There were five Zendikar Fetches, but there will be ten shocks. Having twice as many types of shocks as fetches would typically increase the price of the shocks. If the same number of boxes were opened of Zendikar and RtR, assuming the original Ravnica didn't exist, there would be roughly half the number of any one Shock relative to a given Fetch. However, we are only getting five Shocks in RtR, and the other five in Gatecrash. Gatecrash also happens to be a large set, not a small set. Had Gatecrash been a small set there may have been an influence there, but as the draft format will see Gatecrash drafted just as much as RtR, the split between the two sets shouldn't cause any real movement in price. Unless the Gatecrash draft format is absolutely miserable or it has not a single playable mythic (both highly unlikely), the five-ten split should be mostly inconsequential.
In addition to these differences, we should also consider the environment the Shocks are being released in. Ravnica was by many measures the most popular set Wizards has every done, and I don't see RtR being much different. Not only are we returning to the most popular setting in the game, we're doing it with the most players Magic has ever had. I fully anticipate this will be the most heavily-drafted set in Magics history by the time the dust is settled. That means there are going to be a great deal of Shocks in circulation.
When we consider all of the aforementioned factors, and realize that the two largest differences between the two types of lands - Availability and Playability - both favor the Fetches in terms of holding value, it becomes clear that the Shocks will not be able to put up numbers the way the Fetches have.
Where do the actual numbers end up though? To the best of my recollection, no individual Fetch reached more than $15 during its time in standard (ignoring SCG pricing). They all started out at about $15 each, but fell to about $10. Misty Rainforest held its value a little better, trending around $12-$13, and each had its own brief time to shine, but for the most part, they were 10bux. Now that we are nearly two years past their rotation, Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest have climbed a little, while the other three have slipped to $8 and $9 each. Pairing these numbers with our knowledge of how Shocks will likely compare to Fetches, we can form an idea of what to expect. I would anticipate that the Shocks will trade at about $13-$15 each during their initial release, and the first one to four weeks could even see a slight jump from there as scads of people attempt to pick up the playsets they want. After the initial furor dies down, however, I expect them to settle comfortably at $7-$10, with individual ones enjoying price spikes when a deck in their color suddenly performs well at a major event.
What does this mean for you? Right now, if you can get even close to market value on your shocks, you should take it and run. Beyond that though, you have to weigh the amount you trade against the usefulness of the lands to you when deciding if you want to ship your Shocks. If you trade very infrequently, and you love playing UW, holding onto your Hallowed Fountains may very well be worth it to you, as the drop in their value may be worth not having to find the time and resources to reacquire them in 2 months when you need them again. However, if your collection is fairly liquid, I would encourage you to trade away all Shocks you have at the moment and dive back in after they've all fallen $10-$15 each.
No comments:
Post a Comment